The U.S. economy is within reach of a nearly full recovery by the end of the year, said St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Thursday.

The economy is expected to have rapid growth in the third quarter, reversing the steep decline in the April-June quarter when the pandemic shut down the economy.

Economists now expect strong growth in the July-September quarter. If this continues in the fourth quarter, Bullard said the U.S. could return to the average level of national income, one way to measure the broader economy, in 2019. For instance, if GDP grows at a 35% rate in the third quarter, it would need growth at a 10% rate in the final three months of the year to hit that level.

Such a forecast is “a little bit outside of what even the optimistic forecasters are saying but I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibility that you could have the fourth quarter GDP close to our average for 2019 and that would be a great outcome for the U.S. economy,” Bullard said in a speech to the Global Interdependence Center.



Source: Bloomberg